An Overview of 2012

What Will Matter

• National priorities
• Forecasting presidential elections -- 2012
• GDP
• A different model
• Income
• Where do the poll numbers stand?
• The Electoral College

What Won't Matter

• Romney and Dogs
• Obama and Dogs
• Charisma

What Might Matter

• The vice presidency
• Same-sex marriage
• The ground war
• Money
• Turnout (see 2008 data) 

Congressional Elections

• Incumbency advantage
• The Senate is in play 

Just remember: there is no new thing under the sun.