For 40 years during the middle of the 20th century, Gallup recorded little difference in the marriage rates of middle-aged Republicans and Democrats -- those of the prime marriage ages of 30-50. [2] But a gap emerged in the 1980s as the rate fell rapidly for Democrats but much less so for Republicans. It widened further in the 1990s and 2000s before narrowing a bit since the 2010s as Republicans’ marital rate fell closer to the Democrats’ rate. The latest data suggest the gap may be widening again.
Long term, the marriage rate for Democrats aged 30-50 fell from as high as 90% at points in the 1950s and 1970s to below 60% after 1990 and just under 50% in 2021 and 2024 to date. And the pattern among independents has been similar. Over the same period, Republicans’ marriage rate fell from a peak of 90% in 1965 to less than 80% since 1990 and stands at 67% in 2024 to date.
From 2000 to the present, the Republican marriage rate has averaged 18 percentage points above the Democratic marriage rate. The trend for independents, meanwhile, has been close to that of Democrats.
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Party identification is strongly correlated with a number of demographic characteristics. But statistical analysis simultaneously taking multiple variables into account shows that a gap between Republicans’ and Democrats’ marriage rates persists even after adjusting for age, gender, education, and race or ethnicity. Since 1980, the partisan marriage gap has been 19 points among adults 30 to 50. Adjusting for the factors listed above, the gap shrinks only modestly, to 16 points.
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