This presidential election is likely to be close. This guess rests not only on current polls but also recent history.
Winner's popular vote margin 1976-1996
1976 Carter 2.06%
1980 Reagan 9.74%
1984 Reagan 18.21%
1988 Bush41 7.72%
1992 Clinton 5.56%
1996 Clinton 8.51%
Average 8.63%
2000 Bush43 -0.51%
2004 Bush43 2.46%
2008 Obama 7.27%
2012 Obama 3.86%
2016 Trump -2.09%
2020 Biden 4.45%
Average 2.57%
As with cars, past performance does not necessarily indicate future results. Historical patterns change.