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Monday, February 24, 2025

Early Data: Crime Down in 2024

 Many posts have discussed crime in the United States.

Russell Contreras at Axios:

Preliminary data show homicides in the nation's largest cities fell by 16% in 2024 from the previous year, and overall violent crime appears to have dropped as well.

Why it matters: Stats compiled by the Major Cities Chiefs Association (MCCA) suggest that the COVID-era crime wave all but evaporated during President Biden's final year in office, even as Donald Trump's claims that crime was rising became a key part of his winning election strategy.
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The intrigue: During the presidential campaign, Trump repeatedly made false claims that migrants from Latin America, Africa and the Middle East were driving big jumps in violent crimes.Trump singled out Aurora, Colo., saying the Denver suburb was being overrun by Venezuelan immigrant gangs. The MCCA stats indicate homicides declined in Aurora by 5% last year, compared to 2023.
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Zoom out: Overall, the Axios analysis found that homicides dropped 24% from 2020 (the first nine months of the pandemic and Trump's last year in office) to 2024.
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The bottom line: Early numbers show Trump returned to office with lower violent crime rates — especially homicides — than when he left the presidency in January 2021.

There's no evidence undocumented immigrants during Biden's term were behind a surge in violent crime.
A report in December found that the homicide surge of 2020 was primarily driven by men and teen boys who were laid off or saw their schools close during pandemic shutdowns.